Facts Don’t Lie—But Politics Often Does

In Shelby County, where talk of crime often dominates headlines and campaign speeches, a quiet reality has been unfolding behind the noise. New data from the Shelby County District Attorney’s Office paints a far different picture of justice than the one being broadcast by political critics.

According to official numbers released this month, convictions in December 2025 were up, dismissals were down, and violent cases were being prosecuted more successfully than before the current administration took office.

Specifically, the DA’s Office convicted 61% of cases in December 2025, compared to just 54% during the same month in 2019 — the last pre-pandemic year under the previous administration. Dismissals, meanwhile, dropped from 46% to 39%. The swing is even more striking for violent crimes: the conviction rate jumped from 56% in 2019 to 67% in 2025, while the dismissal rate fell from 44% to 33%.

For District Attorney Steve Mulroy, these are not political claims. They are the measurable, verifiable results of a system his office has been working to reform since day one.

“We’re not speculating—we’re looking at the data,” Mulroy said in a statement accompanying the release. “We see more convictions and fewer dismissals compared to my Republican predecessor, who never received this type of criticism from Republican politicians.”

As local leaders and national pundits increasingly debate the direction of criminal justice reform, this data offers something many conversations are missing: context—and accountability rooted in transparency rather than headlines.

The Politics of Perception

If there’s one constant in Memphis politics, it’s that crime sells, especially during election season. Over the last year, critics of the DA’s office have flooded talk shows, press conferences, and social media, claiming prosecutors are “soft on crime.”

But Mulroy’s office says that narrative isn’t just false—it’s intentionally misleading.

“The facts simply don’t back up what’s being said,” said one veteran prosecutor, who asked not to be named because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly. “The hardest part about this job isn’t the cases—it’s the constant noise that turns data into a political weapon.”

Indeed, much of the criticism comes from state-level politicians who have seized on local criminal justice trends to rally voters, painting Memphis as an example of “what happens when progressives take over.”

What that rhetoric often ignores is the complex reality of prosecution in an urban county still recovering from the pandemic’s impact on courts, public defenders, witnesses, and evidence backlogs.

By using December 2019 as a baseline, Mulroy’s team intentionally chose a period before COVID-19 disrupted normal operations. That decision avoids statistical distortion and allows for a genuine “apples-to-apples” comparison between administrations.

It’s a small methodological detail—but one that makes a big difference when the data becomes political ammunition.

This chart shows how conviction and dismissal rates have shifted since before the pandemic and the change in administration. In December 2019, 54% of cases ended in conviction and 46% were dismissed. In December 2025, convictions rose to 61% while dismissals dropped to 39%, reflecting stronger case outcomes under the current DA’s administration.

Examining the Numbers

To appreciate what the new statistics mean, you need to understand the metrics themselves.

• Conviction Rate (61%): Indicates the percentage of cases where the defendant was found or pled guilty.

• Dismissal Rate (39%): Reflects cases where charges were dropped or dismissed by the court, either voluntarily by prosecutors or for procedural reasons.

• Violent Crime Convictions (67%): A key indicator of prosecutorial performance in serious offenses like assault, robbery, and homicide.

When the data is lined up side by side with 2019, the difference is unmistakable. Shelby County is now securing more successful prosecutions and losing fewer cases before trial.

Dismissals can happen for legitimate reasons: lack of witness cooperation, insufficient evidence, procedural defects, or plea agreements where defendants accept responsibility for other crimes. But consistent declines in this category point to better case preparation, stronger evidence handling, and improved witness coordination—all of which take time and strategy, not slogans.

The DA’s internal metrics mirror patterns seen in several other large jurisdictions. In cities like Fort Lauderdale, Phoenix, and Milwaukee, dismissal rates for certain types of offenses remain in the same range as Shelby County’s, reinforcing that local trends are not outliers—they’re part of a broader national landscape.

Behind the Numbers: A Shift in Culture

Mulroy’s administration has pledged from the start to rebuild public trust by making prosecutions both fair and effective. That goal required changing more than just case statistics—it meant changing internal systems and expectations.

According to team members in his office, reforms have included:

• Data Transparency: Publishing quarterly reports that track progress and case outcomes rather than relying on anecdotal claims.

• Victim & Witness Support: Increasing outreach and coordination to ensure crucial testimony doesn’t fall through the cracks.

• Training and Accountability: Investing in continuing education for prosecutors to identify weak cases earlier and pursue stronger ones more efficiently.

• Community Engagement: Partnering with neighborhood organizations and schools to reframe public understanding of how justice is built day by day—not in soundbites.

“Prosecutors aren’t politicians,” said Assistant District Attorney Tara Simmons, who oversees felony trials. “Our metric for success isn’t applause; it’s outcomes that stand up to scrutiny.”

She pauses for a moment before adding, “When critics use fear to score points, it discourages people from coming forward as witnesses, and that ultimately hurts public safety. We’re trying to reverse that.”

The Broader Conversation About Crime

Memphis is no stranger to the struggle between perception and progress. Crime rates can fluctuate for dozens of reasons—economic hardship, population shifts, policing strategies, or even weather cycles. But the sharp uptick in political attack narratives has added a new layer of complexity to an already sensitive issue.

Public confidence in the justice system doesn’t just affect elections; it affects whether victims report crimes, whether juries trust prosecutors, and whether communities cooperate with police investigations.

“Some of this rhetoric is dangerous because it erodes the very confidence we’re trying to build,” said Dr. Angela Watson, a criminologist at the University of Memphis. “When you create the impression that nothing’s being done, even when data shows improvement, people disengage—and that disengagement itself can make crime worse.”

Indeed, recent studies have shown that fear of crime often rises even when actual crime rates are steady or declining. That disconnect underscores the importance of data-driven discussion rather than emotionally charged narratives.

In Shelby County, the numbers tell a hopeful story: stronger prosecutions, fewer failures, and an office adapting to deliver justice under pressure. But for that story to be heard, it has to cut through political static.

Why Truth Still Matters

For Mulroy, the issue isn’t just defending his office; it’s defending the integrity of facts themselves.

In his statement, he noted that the previous administration faced no similar criticism from the same voices now sounding alarms—despite having lower conviction rates and higher dismissals.

That double standard, he argues, underscores how selective outrage can distort citizens’ understanding of how their justice system is performing.

“There’s a difference between holding us accountable and distorting the record,” Mulroy said. “Accountability is healthy. But people deserve accuracy.”

In an era where political talking points can travel faster than public records, setting the record straight requires more than a press release—it demands ongoing transparency.

The DA’s office has said it will continue publishing comparative data and welcomes independent analysis from journalists, academics, and community groups. The hope is that truth can gradually reclaim space from speculation.

A Narrative Shift for Memphis

For community members, this isn’t just about statistics; it’s about what those numbers symbolize—a move toward steadier leadership, smarter prosecution, and a justice system that prioritizes outcomes over optics.

Local nonprofit leader Darryl Quinn, who works with youth mentoring programs in South Memphis, says misinformation about crime is one of the hardest obstacles to overcome.

“When all people hear is that nothing’s getting done, they stop believing in the system,” Quinn said. “But when you look at what the DA’s numbers really say, it’s clear they’re not throwing cases out—they’re winning them. That matters for trust, and trust matters for safety.”

The data makes another point too: that improving public safety isn’t about choosing between reform and enforcement—it’s about doing both with integrity.

Memphis has long balanced that tension: tough realities on the streets paired with deep community roots that value fairness and accountability. The numbers from December 2025 show that, despite the noise, the county’s justice system is finding that balance again.

Looking Forward

The path ahead won’t be free of challenges. Like prosecutors nationwide, Shelby County’s team faces heavy caseloads, limited funding, and persistent misconceptions about their work. But data like this gives them leverage—the ability to prove progress with precision rather than politics.

For residents, access to transparent, verifiable data about prosecutions is an essential part of democratic oversight. Facts empower citizens to demand better results while recognizing real improvements when they happen.

And as this latest report reminds everyone, Shelby County’s story doesn’t have to be written by those who shout the loudest. It can be written by those who listen—to the evidence, to the data, and to the people actually doing the work.

The noise will continue, but truth has a way of outlasting talking points.

After all, you can spin politics—but you can’t spin the math.